Bitcoin reclaimed the $65,000 level on Monday as a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran entered its second day, injecting a risk-on mood across global markets.

The leading cryptocurrency traded around $65,400 at press time, up roughly 1.2% over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. Ether staged a more pronounced rally, climbing over 3% to near $1,950, with other top-10 tokens including Solana (SOL) and XRP posting modest 1–2% gains.

Oil Slides, Equities Tick Higher

The de-escalation in the Middle East sent oil prices sharply lower. West Texas Intermediate futures gapped down roughly 5% to trade near $85 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 4.7% to $92.19. Equity futures pointed in the opposite direction, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 contracts each trading about half a percent higher.

Currency markets mirrored the shift in sentiment. The Australian dollar and euro both gained ground against the US dollar, signaling a broader rotation into risk assets.

Iran reportedly stated it would continue to halt airstrikes as long as the US did the same, marking a tenuous start to what appears to be yet another diplomatic process. The conflict, which began in late February, had entered a ceasefire in the second quarter before unraveling.

Ether's Outperformance Hints at Rotation

Ether's 3% advance against bitcoin's more modest gain caught the attention of traders, with some interpreting the move as an early sign of capital rotating toward alternative cryptocurrencies.

However, Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, cautioned against reading too much into a single session. "Ether's over 3% gain shows some rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies, although BTC's dominance at 58.6% shows this is not yet a broad-based altcoin trend," he said.

Bitcoin dominance — the ratio of BTC's market capitalization to the total crypto market — remains near multi-year highs, suggesting that capital flows are still concentrated in the largest asset rather than dispersing across the altcoin universe.

Fed Looms Large

The relief rally faces an immediate test. The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 28–29, and markets are pricing a 36.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase, according to futures data.

"Prices are also responding to macro developments," Subburaj noted. "Brent crude's 4.7% fall to $92.19 has eased some inflation concerns, but the July 28–29 Federal Reserve meeting remains the immediate risk."

The intersection of cooling oil prices and a potential rate hike creates a complex signal for risk assets. Lower energy costs reduce inflationary pressure, which could argue for a dovish stance. But the Fed has repeatedly emphasized its data-dependent approach, and labor market resilience may keep policymakers inclined toward tightening.

Cycle Analysis: Building a Bottom

While short-term traders focused on the Fed, longer-term analysts pointed to bitcoin's four-year cycle patterns as a reason for measured optimism.

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, noted that the time between each bitcoin halving and the subsequent bear market bottom has historically been approximately 900 days. The current cycle is at day 827.

"Based on this pattern, we can say that bitcoin is already building its price bottom, with a potential final bottom forming sometime within the next two months," Wedson wrote on X.

That framing aligns with the view that the current phase represents accumulation rather than distribution, though cycle-based analysis remains speculative and subject to the caveat that past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.

What to Watch

The coming days offer a dense calendar. Fed decision mid-week, mega-cap tech earnings, and any developments in the US-Iran diplomatic channel will all feed into the risk appetite that has driven crypto's latest bounce. For now, the market is choosing to price peace over precaution.