Bitcoin may be approaching the end of an eleven-month correction and entering an accumulation phase, according to VanEck's digital assets research team — though the asset manager is careful to say the signals are not a trading call.
Researchers including Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel found that eight of twelve indicators in the firm's "Bitcoin Capitulation Check" are currently flashing, with all twelve having entered their capitulation zones at some point over the past three months. The readings suggest the market has witnessed "what appears to be bitcoin price capitulation" and is "nearing or currently in an accumulation phase."
Where the Market Stands
Bitcoin traded around $64,700 on Tuesday, range-bound between roughly $58,000 and $66,500 since the beginning of June. The cryptocurrency remains about 48% below its all-time high of approximately $126,300 set in October 2025.
On-chain data shows the strain. Bitcoin held for more than a year fell by roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days to 11.84 million BTC, pushing long-term holders' share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months — a textbook pattern of old coins moving to new buyers in a depressed market.
Spot ETF demand has turned with it. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded just under $300 million in net inflows on Monday, their strongest single day since May 5.
The Cycle Math
VanEck notes that the three previous bitcoin bear phases averaged 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown. Bitcoin is now in month eleven from its early-October 2025 peak, which would place a potential transition to accumulation between September and November on historical timing.
But the researchers explicitly warn against treating the capitulation signals as a near-term buy trigger: in past episodes where eight to twelve indicators fired, average 90-day and 180-day forward returns actually came in below baseline.
A Shallower Trough Thesis
VanEck expects "a shallower trough this cycle," citing three structural differences from prior downturns: the existence of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products, a larger institutional holder base, and the absence of cascading crypto lender and exchange failures like FTX, Celsius, and Terra Luna that amplified previous drawdowns.
The bottom line from the research desk: the market is showing late-correction behavior on nearly every metric they track, but the signal has historically been early rather than precise — and the structural floor under this cycle, they argue, sits higher than the last one.